Fantasy Football Lockout Over!



Can Arian Foster bring fantasy owners the
same stats as last year?

I was excited to learn a few weeks ago that the players and owners of the NFL had come to terms on a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) because that meant the fantasy football lockout was finally over! Yes, yes I was extremely pleased that I was going to be able to watch my Saints make a run at another Super Bowl title but man I am excited to have fantasy football back. I know a good many people who play fantasy football and will go well beyond having just one team. I actually "coached" three fantasy teams last year and even that was a bit too much for me.

But, indeed, fantasy football is back and fans are busy looking at their magazine cheat sheets and analyzing the players they want to draft and others they are willing to stay away from this year. There is much more strategy than people think that goes into fantasy draft analysis and if you want to become the league champion and win all that money you and your bros put up at the beginning of the season then make sure you do your homework.

One thing to look at is last years performance. Take a look at how well they did last year and see why you think he'll do better or worse. Look at the teams offseason moves. Especially with the crazy free agent season we've had recently, take a look at what teams have been doing that will affect a players performance. For example, Chad Ochocinco's fantasy stock should rise with him signing with New England and catching balls from Tom Brady. Lastly, I always take a look at some players' schedule. What divisions from their conference are they playing? What division from the other conference are they playing? Just little stuff like that. Now, it's time for some pre-draft analysis. I am going to release my Round 1 mock draft for a league with 10 teams. These are the top 10 fantasy players as I would draft them in round 1 of a fantasy football draft. As the Bud Light comercials always say, "Here we go!"

Round 1 Mock Draft

Pick 1:  Adrian Peterson

His nickname is AD, meaning All Day, and he means all day everyday. No matter what, old QB or young QB Peterson will run as hard as he can. Even with the Vikings being a miserable team last year with an "aging" QB Peterson still ran for 1,298 yds and 12 touchdowns while catching 36 passes for 341 yds and another td. He is always a reliable option at running back that you can count on. He is the only RB who's been in the top 5 in fantasy points the past 4 years.

Prediction:  With the addition of Donovan McNabb in Minnesota I believe he will get back to the way he rushed in '09 when Favre was having much success. New coach Leslie Frazier is committed to the running game and will use Adrian often. Put him down for 1,400 rushing yds, 350 rec. yds, and roughly 16 total TD's

Pick 2:  Arian Foster

If you tell me you saw Foster's breakout rookie season coming then you're lying. I thought he would do well once he was proclaimed the Texans starter but not 1,600 yds and 16 TD's good. He averaged 5.0 yards a carry last season and also had 604 yds. receiving out of the backfield with 2 more TD's. That meant big big points, exactly 313 to be exact for you standard league. This young bull is going to do work in the NFL for awhile so we better get used to it.

Prediction:  It's probably a good thing that Houston's defense is so bad because that means Schaub, Foster, and Johnson will be playing catch-up most games which results in lots of offense. Now, I'll say that I think Foster regresses a little this season but not bad enough to take him too low. I predict he'll get around 1,400 rushing yds, 500 rec. yds, and 14 TD's. Still a top 5 pick in my opinion.

Pick 3:  Chris Johnson

After many people took Johnson with the top overall pick in 2010 he had what people called a "down" year. I kind of agreed but the guy still rushed for 1,364 yds with 245 rec. yds and totaling up 12 TD's. Not such a bad year but didn't have the flash as he did two seasons ago. The guy is still the fastest back in the league who has the tendency to break big "video-game-like" runs for long touchdowns which result in big points.

Prediction:  Even though the Titans added Matt Hasselbeck I am still not sold on their passing game which will result in defenses putting their primary focus on stopping Johnson. Also worth noting, the Titans face the NFC South and the AFC North this season which means him having to run through defenses consisting of Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and New Orleans which will be tough. So i think Johnson will churn out 1,300 rushing yds, 400 rec. yds, and roughly 13 TD's.

Pick 4:  Jamaal Charles

A pleasant surprise to the fantasy world last year, Jamaal Charles had an exceptional season with the division champion Kansas City Chiefs. Charles rushed for 1,467 yds and caught for 468 yds out of the backfield to total 8 TD's. Charles is a bull like runner who can also hit the long one as well. I love taking him as a top 5 pick and I think he'll have an even better season this year.
Prediction:  Last year he had to deal with Thomas Jones stealing many of his scoring opportunities but Jones is getting old, quick. I think Todd Haley is ready to use him more in goal line situations and that he'll still do well gett receiving yards. Put him down for over 1,500 yds and another 450 rec. yds. and total of 11 TD's.

Pick 5: Michael Vick

 This is most definitely the first round's risk-reward pick. A quartback like Vick can be deadly and propelled many teams to fantasy championships last season. In only 12 games last year he tallied up 3,018 pass. yds with 21 TD's. In addition to that he rushed for 676 yards and 9 more trips to the endzone. That's lethal. But, there's reason why he played 12 games. Injuries. With Vick doing so much running it makes him susceptable to more big hits. Tough,

Prediction:  I'm in favor of taing Vick this high. I think the Eagles coaches spent the whole offseason figuring out how they can protect him better and how to utilize him more. He will be dangerous. He'll thrown for over 3,200 yards and run for another 650. Also, put him down for 19 pass. TD's and 7 rushing TD's.

Pick 6:  Ray Rice

I was an owner of Rice last season and he had me wanting to kill him early in the season. He didn't get in the endzone until week 5 and had only 6 total TD's last season. But, I stuck with him and am willing to give him another chance. Joe Flacco will do well throwing the ball and this will open up some hole for Rice who is a tough runner and one of the best receiving RB's in the league.

Prediction:  The Ravens let go of Willis McGahee and picked up Ricky Williams as his backup. Williams may steal a few scoring opportunities but not enough to drop his stock value. His exceptional ability to catch balls out of the backfeld makes him a valuable back, especially in PPR leagues. I'll give Rice roguhly 1,300 yds and 9 TD's to go with 600 rec. yds. and 2 more touchdowns.

Pick 7: Maurice Jones-Drew

Yet another tough choice to go with Jones-Drew this high up. He had some knee injury issues last season costing him the last 3 games of last season really hurting teams in fantasy playoffs. After meniscus surgery in the off-season he is ready to go. He still finished with 1,300 yards last season and 300 more receiving with 7 TD's. Will he get into the nedzone more?
Prediction:  I don't believe he will be quite as explosive as last season but I do think he will get the bulk of goal line carries for the Jaguars this season while reeling off several lengthy runs as well. He will be able to give relief to whichever QB the Jags go with. I'll give Jones-Drew 1,150 yards to go with 10 TD's and over 400 rec. yds. and 2 more TD's.

Pick 8:  Aaron Rodgers
I'm not usually in favor of taking a QB in the first round but with the success that Aaron Rodgers had last year I may just take him this year. Rodgers was the third leading fantasy point scorer last year behind Foster and Vick with 292 points in your standard league. he finished with just under 4,000 passing yds. and 28 TD's and also had 4 rushing TD's. He is very accurate and scores big points.
Prediction:  Rodgers is a very lucky man when you consider the targets he has to throw to: Jennings, Driver, Nelson, Lee, Jones, and, oh yeah, Jermichael Finley will be back from injury. RB or QB you wanna take a guy who scores points and Rodgers will. I predict him to thrown over 4,100 yards with about 27 TD's.

Pick 9:  LeSean McCoy
LeSean McCoy's value went way up last year with the emergence of Michael Vick. He has become the premiere back in the Eagles' offense and benefits greatly in the passing game from Vick's mobility and attention he gets from the defense. No back had more receptions than McCoy last season who finished with over 1,000 yds rushing and nearly 600 yds. receiving.
Prediction:  Much like I said about Vick previously applies to McCoy because of his dependency on Vick's success. If Vick gets hurt then McCoy's numbers will suffer. But, if all goes well, he will put up some large numbers this season. Give me 1,100 yds. rushing and 700 yds. receiving with 10 TD's.

Pick 10:  Rashard Mendenhall

There is one main reason why Mendenhall falls into my top 10 and that is because he loves finding the endzone which makes up for lack of yards which he still gets a lot of. Last season he scored 13 TD's which was second behind Foster. He also added over 1,200 yards to go with it. He's a beast who likes to run over people, typical Steeler right?

Prediction:  Pittsburgh loves being physical and that means running the ball, especially in those snowy, cold-weathered games they play in late in the season. You can bet that if Pittsburgh gets inside the 3 they will hand it to Rashard. He'll run for over 1,200 yds again and add double digit TD's easily. Plus with the 10th pick, in a typical snake draft, you can take whoever at this spot becuase you will have the next pick as well.

If you're thinking to yourself that I'm stupid and I give to much love to RB's then that's fine, feel free to pick anyone you want. I started playing fantasy football with my father way back when there was no ESPN leagues and we had to do everything on Excel spreadsheets and the league commissioner would "print" off the weekly results on Monday mornings. Trust me, you need solid RB's to win your league followed by consisten QB play and mix in some good go to receivers and you can find yourself with a top seed come playoff time. take these rankings as you wish and good luck! Happy drafting everyone!

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